Recent approaches in financial risk management in contexts of economic uncertainty.
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.63618/omd/revinvlid/v2/n3/38Keywords:
financial risk, economic uncertainty, machine learning, stress tests, sovereign riskAbstract
The growing macroeconomic uncertainty, exposure to sovereign risk, and fragmentation of financial evaluation methods hinder the anticipation of vulnerabilities in Ecuador's intermediary entities. The study aimed to analyze recent approaches to financial risk management applicable to the Ecuadorian context, considering Latin American and international evidence. A qualitative, documentary, non-experimental, cross-sectional, and exploratory research was conducted thru the review of scientific articles, technical reports, and regulatory documents published mainly between 2021 and 2025. The results showed a transition from historical indicators and parametric models to machine learning, hybrid architectures, contagion analysis, and stress tests; however, no tool simultaneously integrated interpretability, predictive accuracy, asset projection, and representation of systemic risk. The interpretation of the findings showed that these methods were complementary and that their application required incorporating macroeconomic, fiscal, institutional, and external variables, especially in a dollarized and oil-dependent economy. It was concluded that effective financial risk management should articulate traditional indicators, predictive models, adverse scenarios, reliable data, and institutional supervision within an integrated, forward-looking, and multidimensional architecture.
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Copyright (c) 2025 Casanova-Villalba, César Iván, Herrera-Sánchez, Maybelline Jaqueline, Almeida-Blacio, Jorge Hernan, Hurtado Guevara, Richard Fernando (Autor/a)
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